Predictu
Trading Engine

Risk Management System

Predictu employs a multi-layered defense system that evaluates every incoming trade before execution. Each layer acts as an independent gate — a trade must pass all of them to proceed. If any layer rejects the trade, the request is denied and a risk event is logged for operator visibility.

Operator control: All risk parameters are configurable per operator via the dashboard. The system ships with sensible defaults, but every threshold can be tuned to match your specific risk appetite and business model.

Defense Layers

The defense layers are evaluated in order, from fastest to most comprehensive. Execution stops at the first rejection, minimizing unnecessary computation and keeping trade latency low.

1
Per-trade safeguards — Every trade is checked against the player’s individual limits, which are determined by their tier. This prevents any single trade from exceeding appropriate risk thresholds.
2
Market-level caps — The system tracks total exposure on each market and prevents the platform from accumulating too much risk on any single event. Caps are configurable per operator.
3
Category-level caps — Markets within the same category can be correlated (e.g., multiple political markets that resolve based on the same election). Category caps limit this correlation risk by capping total exposure across related markets.
4
Global exposure limit — The ultimate backstop that caps total platform-wide risk across all markets, categories, and users. This ensures the operator’s total liability never exceeds a defined ceiling.
5
Circuit breakers — Dynamic halts that activate based on loss patterns over rolling time windows. Circuit breakers can pause trading for individual users or across the entire platform when anomalous conditions are detected.

Automatic Circuit Breakers

Unlike the exposure caps, circuit breakers monitor realized losses over time and activate automatically when thresholds are exceeded. The system supports multiple circuit breaker types:

  • Per-user loss halts — Temporarily blocks new trades for a player who has experienced losses exceeding configured thresholds within a rolling time window. Automatically resets when the window expires.
  • Platform-wide halt — Blocks all new trades across the platform when system-wide losses exceed a critical threshold. Requires manual review and reset by an administrator.
Exits always allowed: Even when circuit breakers are active, sell orders still execute. Players can always close their positions, which reduces the platform’s exposure rather than increasing it.

Intelligent Player Monitoring

The risk system integrates with the player intelligence engine to identify users who consistently outperform the market. When sharp trading patterns are detected, the system can automatically adjust spreads and risk parameters to protect operator margins — all without the player ever being aware of their classification.

Silent enforcement: All player-specific risk adjustments are invisible to the end user. There is no notification, no UI indicator, and no way for the player to determine their classification.

Real-Time Monitoring

Every risk decision — whether a pass or a rejection — is logged with full context. Operators can view risk events in their dashboard, filtered by severity, market, or player. The system uses tiered severity levels to help operators prioritize their attention:

  • Informational — Normal operation. Trade passed all checks. Available for audit purposes.
  • Warning — Trade rejected by an individual limit. May indicate growing exposure that warrants review.
  • Critical — Platform-level risk event. Immediate admin attention recommended.

Full Configurability

Every risk parameter is configurable per operator, including:

  • Per-trade limits for each player tier
  • Per-market and per-category exposure caps
  • Global platform exposure ceiling
  • Circuit breaker thresholds and time windows
  • Player-specific spread adjustments
Tailored to your business: Risk configuration is designed to accommodate different operator risk profiles. Whether you prefer conservative limits with tight caps or aggressive limits with higher ceilings, the system adapts to your requirements. Contact your Predictu account manager to discuss custom risk parameters.